Bitcoin Bulls' Last Stand? $95K, According to This Well-Followed Analyst

What to know:

• Around 57% of all invested capital is underwater at $100,000.
• Analyst Checkmate warns that a fall below $95,000 would mark a critical shift, and potentially signal the start of a bear market.
• Coinglass' Fear & Greed Index has tumbled to "Extreme Fear" levels.

While bitcoin's decline below $100,000 yesterday was of significant symbolic importance, it's the $95,000 level which could prove key, according to James Check, or Checkmate, as he's known in the online world.

Nearly 57% of all dollars invested in bitcoin are now underwater at the $100,000 level, according to Check, helping to explain the current deep fear in markets. However, said Check, losses right now sit at roughly $20 billion, or 3% of bitcoin's market cap. Previous price dips in 2024 and earlier this year saw losses relative to market cap reach the 7%-8% level.

A decline to $95,000, though, brings losses closer to the 10% area, which, said Check, marks the point when historical bear markets tend to get going.

"The current market conditions are some of the hardest to read in my experience," Check continued. "We don't want to see the price fall below $95,000, but I also expect the bulls to mount one hell of a fight to defend it."

Speaking of deep fear, Coinglass' Fear & Greed Index has slumped just into the "Extreme Fear" range at the 24 level. Readings of Extreme Fear have, on occasion, been associated with at least short-term bottoms in bitcoin. For comparison, the gauge dropped as low as 21 during April's tariff panic in which bitcoin tumbled to $75,000.