Figure Gets Mixed Wall Street Debut as KBW, BofA Diverge on Outlook

What to know:

• KBW initiated coverage of Figure with an “Outperform” rating, citing dominance in tokenized credit markets and upside beyond HELOCs.
• Bank of America issued a “Neutral” rating, pointing to execution risks and overreliance on Figure’s non-blockchain-native HELOC business.
• The $7.50 gap in price targets highlights cautious expectations around Figure’s ability to scale its blockchain lending platform.

Two major Wall Street investment banks have issued differing views on the newly public fintech firm Figure (FIGR), as the company works to expand its blockchain-based lending and capital markets platform beyond home equity lines of credit.

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) initiated coverage of Figure with an “outperform” rating and a 12-month price target of $48.50, suggesting 17.5% upside. The bank praised Figure’s early dominance in tokenized credit markets, where it holds 73% of the private credit segment and 39% of all tokenized real-world assets, according to KBW’s estimates.

Founded by former SoFi CEO Mike Cagney, Figure went public in September and has climbed 12% since its IPO. Its core business tokenizes HELOCs and connects borrowers to investors through a vertically integrated platform that includes loan origination, distribution and a digital asset marketplace.

KBW sees Figure’s tech stack as underutilized and capable of supporting a wider range of credit assets, such as first-lien mortgages and personal loans. It also pointed to upside from products like Figure Exchange and a tokenization tool for third-party assets.

Another broker, Bernstein, earlier initiated coverage on the stock with a more upbeat outlook. It rates Figure as an "outperform" with $54 price target, citing that the firm is doing for lending what stablecoins did for payments, tokenizing traditional assets to make markets faster and more efficient.

The flipside

Bank of America, however, took a more cautious view.

It initiated coverage with a “neutral” rating and a $41 price target, citing risks around execution, regulation and Figure’s dependence on its HELOC business, which still generates most of its profits and is not yet fully blockchain-native.

BofA sees Figure Connect — a new marketplace that helps lenders match with capital providers — as the company’s next growth driver. The bank expects it to account for 75% of the firm’s total revenue growth between 2024 and 2027.

While both banks acknowledged Figure’s leadership in a neglected corner of consumer lending, they diverged on how easily the company can scale into a broader fintech platform. BofA cited possible roadblocks onboarding large institutions, competition from other tech providers and changing regulatory rules, including updates to the Truth in Lending Act.

The difference in price targets — $48.50 from KBW versus $41 from BofA — reflects the uncertainty surrounding whether Figure’s blockchain infrastructure can transition from a niche use to a more central role in modern finance.