This Cohort Is the Main Force Behind Bitcoin’s Resistance in Price

What to know:

• Revived supply and rising average coin age signal that long-term holders are selling, with $1.7 billion in daily realized profits.
• Nearly half of selling pressure comes from coins held for six months to one year, indicating profit-taking from 2025 buyers.
• Realized profits have surged to about $1.7 billion per day, one of the highest levels seen this cycle.

Bitcoin bottomed out at around $103,500 on Friday, marking an 18% correction from its all-time high of $126,200 reached on Oct. 6. This aligns with a standard bull market correction, where bitcoin typically retraces around 20% a pattern that has defined the current cycle since it began in 2023.

The main source of sell-side pressure in the market is existing bitcoin holders, according to analyst Checkmate.

"The sheer volume of sell-side pressure from existing bitcoin holders is still not widely appreciated, but it has been the source of resistance. Not manipulation, not paper bitcoin, not suppression. Just good old fashioned sellers", Checkmate noted.

The first chart illustrates revived supply, which refers to the total amount of coins returning to circulation after being dormant for a certain amount of time. Revived supply has recently reached its second-highest level of the cycle at $2.9 billion per day.

Notably, 47% of selling pressure is coming from coins held for six months to one year, suggesting that many investors who bought bitcoin at the end of 2024 and particularly during its drop to around $76,000 in April following tariff-related market reactions are now taking profits.

The second chart highlights a similar trend through the average age of spent coins, which has continued to rise throughout this cycle. At the start of the cycle in 2023, the average age of spent coins was 26 days, relatively young age, but it has now increased to 100 days. This indicates that older coins are increasingly being spent as holders choose to realize gains.

Supporting this profit-taking narrative, Checkmate also shows that realized profits have surged to about $1.7 billion per day, one of the highest levels seen this cycle. Meanwhile, realized losses have also climbed to $430 million per day, the third-highest level of the cycle, a high level of capitulation.

Overall, the data suggests that profit-taking remains the dominant market behavior, and this continued selling pressure is weighing on bitcoin’s price.